Macro Data Weekly Update 2025-12-07
Looking ahead, a regime shift—whether via higher defaults, tighter liquidity, or macro deterioration—could drive abrupt widening in the non-investment-grade space, while high-grade spreads may remain a stabilizing, though not immune, anchor.Over the past year, credit-spread dynamics reveal a bifurcated term structure: long-dated OAS has trended lower, while the 3-5 year segment showed a mid-year uptick before stabilizing, and near-term OAS hovered around a narrow range. The compression in the 10-15 year band reduces the cushion against systemic stress, making long-duration credits more vulnerable to sudden repricing if growth cools, inflation surprises tilt policy paths, or liquidity tightens; even modest macro